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text | Lvjie source | Pearl River Department of Investment Clubs, ID: zhujianghuiclub Edit | Poker investor, please indicate the source
PVC was listed in March 2009, and now the time is actually quite a long time, just after 2009, active on the market for some time, from 2012 to 2015 has been relatively quiet, on the one hand the market all the way down, positions also
less, after 2016 up to now should be said that the volatility of this species is particularly large, in fact, there are many reasons behind today would like some circumstances behind it to give you a share.
Because we are concerned about the possible varieties is relatively small, many people do not understand the fundamentals of it, and today I might spend more effort to talk about its fundamentals.
This figure is the world’s supply of PVC, accurate to say that most mainstream of the two, one is the process of China’s calcium carbide, this one is from 2008 in China, which is very fast on the capacity and means a second
part of the natural gas to make ethylene PVC plant, there is no domestic, but in the US there is a device out next year.
methanol to do this one of ethylene, a listed company Salt Lake shares have its 500,000 capacity, production this year, then the plant capacity is estimated to be out at the end, in China, stating that it is craft in the world is the most
rich, coal calcium carbide system to PVC, are all produced in China, but also a long-term stable production.
This is done by calcium carbide process PVC its artwork, by 2012 the profits of this industry is relatively better, but 2012 and 2015 there has been a loss, we put all the raw materials tight, calcium carbide do
after the PVC, it will do the slag cement or bricks on environmental protection.
Coal power generation, the original image in Zhejiang, and now includes a new device in Hunan, Guangxi, these older devices that use electricity industry some devices, such as Shandong, Hebei region are also owned
Overall domestic technology in the world, it is quite advanced, it’s the original contamination is quite large, but this year it gradually reduced pollution.
Some of the key equipment, including ion-exchange membrane caustic soda to do this one can domestically, and Thailand as caustic soda all have their own downstream, while China and Thailand caustic soda to good profits viscose fiber first thing that catches the rebound of the stock.
Overall, the industrial chain from top to bottom say is its production process, and then to the middle part, to most end products, PVC is part of the raw materials, the most important part of most terminal
in fact, in real estate, 33% do PVC pipes.
It should be said that a pipe be divided into three categories, the first category is used for home decoration drains electrician casing Second, the third category is the municipal pipe.
This is a profile mainly in the north, this one is better insulation performance, the main job of the door jamb, window window cover.
The third category is the PVC film, the fourth block is a wire and cable, wire jacket mainly daily use.
as shoe soles, artificial leather, a sheet made, a hard products which demand is relatively large, but the shoes, leather, daily necessities which a classification is too small, the 20% -25% which is a requirement that
relatively stable, with a growth rate of 5-7% per year on the market is the role of a stabilizer.
Although prices fell but a demand is still very stable, but prices have gone up this piece are subject to certain inhibition.
Wire and cable infrastructure and the degree of correlation is relatively high, about 65% -70%, and its demand is directly related to real estate.
on imports and exports.
As imports did not do RMB trade, import and domestic disc does not form a direct replacement.
PVC exports relatively speaking than the larger, long-term rebound in 2016, a very important reason is that export volume, this one being no growth, but the follow-up we can then observe.
caustic soda, can be understood as PVC semi-finished product, and it is considered that the conventional PVC price of caustic soda this is a process of elimination He rose.
If the price of caustic soda PVC prices will be slightly higher then the ones who enjoy it, but not the same this year, these two species are very good.
Water treatment, pharmaceuticals, soil treatment, which is a relatively stable, the main drive demand is two, an alumina, a textile fiber.
There are steel scrap, as well as to be steel, PE, PE this one has imported materials, recycled materials.
PVC this one needs to consider its supply, in fact, is made in China, it imports little effect on the market, because the customer is fixed.
This material back to a relatively very small amount of it, because this one is doing PVC building materials, recycling is less, unless the construction of large-scale renovation.
And after this one true commodity used in a long time, and it is difficult to make the new material added back, then we consider the main supply drive is two, is a new material his new domestic production capacity, the other is export
in fact really consider the supply side is that these two issues.
Aluminum and aluminum window profiles substitution of PVC is quite obvious.
The real need is two, a profile, a pipe, there is the daily necessities, the demand profile is the two largest listed companies, conch, the Three Gorges construction materials, pipes and this one Liansu, male
Zhejiang Yong-high plastic stock, in Choi.
These listed companies invariably have chosen to running a branch in Chengdu, because this one is also the most populated places.
Overall, the transport chain is very evident above, there are two trade routes, one in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and transportation to consumption by rail or road, the other way is to include Shandong, Tianjin Port will be some shipping shipped to Guangdong.
traditional PVC world’s leading exporting country for the United States, Japan and South Korea Taiwan, and the importing country is India, Southeast Asia, Brazil, Russia, in fact, is the BRIC.
In addition to China, because China’s production capacity is enough for now, and for the next year is not good to speak, a little sign of a shortage of capacity in China has emerged.
About the overall supply situation.
In fact, before 2008, it is the development of the industry is good, before it is operating rate is still pricey, even go to 65%, especially from 2006 to 2008, the overall industry profits is good.
However, due to the financial crisis of 2008, the overall industry operating on down, the industry production capacity production peak in 2008 to 2013, its overall production capacity to form a peak in 2013, in 2013 the industry capacity all the way down.
The industry has done very dramatic to capacity, the industry is spontaneous, the actual performance of the device behind the coastal areas have all been phased out and replaced Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia region of large-scale coal chemical plant.
By 2017, due to the overall good industry profits, the industry trend of slow growth gradually appear.
From 2010 until now the situation until now has 1 million tons more than the size of relatively large, scale up, but the number of enterprises is reduced.
This is the last almost three years out of production capacity, the main areas in Jiangsu, Guangxi and Zhejiang.
2015 to some of the more powerful manufacturers actually take the initiative to phase out, like Qilu Petrochemical, its overall assets of the group is very large, but because the industry does not make money long-term, capacity reduction in the initiative.
22016 in the market is good enough, but in fact there are still out of production.
2016 new capacity is about 100 million tons, in August 2016 put into operation in November will successfully reach capacity.
Salt Lake Heiner After 30 million tonnes last year voted in September explosion, in February this year overhaul is expected this year to vote, but bad luck, June and exploded, so I guess this means to the end of the year are less likely to come out.
Qingdao Haijing this one is relatively stable, generally doing some production capacity in 2016 voted out, but there are some eliminated, so the overall count in 2016 no new capacity.
2017 did indeed have several devices come out, but the previous three months, the new device can not load, although Salt Lake Magnesium 500,000 tons in December last year has been put into production, but in June this year, it is normal plan
also exploded repair, overhaul period, Salt Lake shares both units, the largest of 300,000 tons and 500,000 tons is problematic.
Hebei Jinniu 400,000 tons of ethylene in 2016 in fact, this device has been built, mainly of its facilities, including raw materials are transported in and out of no advantage did not do it.
New device seen this year is 1.93 million tons, but can actually vote on these sets, that is 600,000 tons, even if it can all be cast out, and now monthly production of 1.5 million tons, more than three per month
about 4 percent, the new device is not much of this year, the second half did not go down much stuff out.
This year’s overall production growth 1–6 months total increased by 7%, but it is still an increase of production.
July, August, September, according to the new device just talking about production, plant maintenance to do a program, refer to last year’s average of 145 million tons, more than 1 quarter production by 10 million tons, then the average monthly output of 1.55 million tons to almost go
But by 5, 6, 7 months, because the old equipment maintenance and the reasons for the explosion, the average yield is 150, in fact, not much growth, the first half of spring is the high growth rate of some 7, 8, 9 per month is also very
hard up, the chain increased by about 80,000 tons per month.
comparison of yield change in March this month and last month has a special place in March this year is supposed to be an overhaul of the peak, because the previous year in March, after the spring is a small overhaul
But in March this year, environmental protection has not been checked, the new device is normal production, so in March this year, creating a very high amount, but in April, May, on the one hand is delayed maintenance, overhaul amount in May was
very large, may reduced by 10 million tons, strict environmental protection on the other hand, to June, it is no big bang, but for normal maintenance should be finished heavy volume.
Supply-side two stories this year, in the spring of deferred maintenance and environmental inspectors after June, stringent environmental pressures.
This figure can be seen the largest output of three places, one in Inner Mongolia, it produced 300 thousand tons per month, Xinjiang production of 30 million tons, 15 million tons is produced in Shandong, three
a place to add up a larger proportion.
This year it seems there is no increase in Inner Mongolia, with 1–5 production in January this year and last year’s harvest to make a comparison, there is no increase in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang did not increase, but the increase is the largest in Shandong Province, since last year’s operating rate is relatively low.
Why Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang will not increase?
Since its previous operating rate has been very high, although a good profit this year, but there is no room to continue improvement.
Shandong, Henan is typical of outsourcing, the original profit is relatively poor capacity utilization rate of only 50%, while profits rise this year, the operating rate will be up a little, which is in Shandong, Henan, including Qinghai, Qinghai increase is the cause of the new device.
These two places are the most important place this year incremental contribution from Shandong and Henan now look at their operating rate has reached 80%, and Xinjiang almost go down after the increase is more difficult.
As you can see the overall operating rate of this one, the moment is about 72% -74%, and 20% may seem room for improvement, but in fact very, very difficult.
Because there are some zombies capacity, such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hunan Province of these devices are not open, I feel this year is 75% -78% of the peak, and then further on to mention there is no room for.
So come to a conclusion, it is this year, 1.6 million tons is currently under the premise of no new device is already a peak, no matter how high the price is actually no (domestic) and then further out new things.
talk about this year’s dynamic environment, in fact, is very strict environmental protection, on the one hand as the old device, Salt Lake shares in two plants, which are themselves to blame, exploded, as well as Xinjiang Yihua
, I guess this one is not 2012 may have opened up.
Currently Shandong letter like chemical and Thailand is the largest of the two devices, in particular chemical and Thailand now reduced load, 60% load only the letter, the upstream volume production difficult.
imports is very stable.
The main source of imports is the United States, Japan, Taiwan, the United States is the biggest, but since 2014 the monthly amount it will stabilize at around 100,000 tons.
There are a small part of the heavy volume after November this year, because at that time the price is particularly high, PVC rose to 8000, external disk prices low and some extra resources into the country, but in fact it is difficult to heavy volume.
the world from 2007 to the present state, almost like the situation in China, the new devices in recent years mainly Chinese contribution after 2013 because China is no new production capacity, so the global production capacity is relatively
Until 2017 the United States at a new device, the operating rate is going up, but in 2014 foreign capacity utilization can be up to 80%, but domestic calcium carbide is hard on to 80%, external disk has been tight, 80%
It is a very significant business cycle.
situation in the US and the situation in China is similar, no new device after 2013, the new device will be set in 2017, but the United States itself needs very well, the latest data shows it’s own needs is good
2017 to 2018 US ethylene capacity expansion peak.
2017 probably expanded more than 500 million tons in 2018 estimated 500 million tons of production capacity, according to a global growth rate if we look at the world’s ethylene capacity growth is a very high state.
A set of PVC, 540,000 tons, said to have opened on the data, in fact, affect the external disk is still there, price stability the United States, Southeast Asia, prices have gone up, the United States did not rise, this is a more important reason.
situation in Japan will be relatively simple, because the Japanese system in the long run there is no new devices themselves available for export in very small amounts, gradually reduced to 300,000 tons from 200,000 tons.
demand mainly real estate and infrastructure.
Because this product is 60% -70%, and real estate-related, it is judged that it needs to see a few things, one is real estate new construction; the second is the price of cement, cement production, cement stocks, coincident indicators directly determine the industry needs in the end how much
Now the industry is no direct data, we usually use plastic products and electricity to judge.
As a leading indicator of real estate sales, though weakened, still maintain 15% growth rate.
Housing starts in July of this year, the data a little bit down, but in fact still remain at 7% -8%, with an overall tendency this year – July demand still can, you can see there are still 10%.
cement production has not increased, but in fact prices have gone up a lot, cement prices have gone up about 30%, at least we can see demand increase by 10% -20%, or else impossible cement prices have gone up so much.
As the growth rate of glass and PVC is also 7% of its industrial structure and almost PVC, glass prices have gone up by 8%.
If you look at early this year, it is not much correction, in the most light when, in April and May, when it is relatively large price increases, may rise to 20%.
The weakest this year, when cement, glass demand is not bad, real estate inventory is relatively low.
on plastic products.
Plastic products, you can not directly considered as PVC demand, it is the overall demand, including PE, PP, PVC, overall lower demand for about 6 million tons per month, in fact, is very large, a great concept.
1 year term Plastic Products – April demand for larger, gradually decline after April, after May this year, check the downstream environmental protection, environmental protection check not only affect swim upstream, downstream in fact also affected, but also to maintain a 5% year on year growth rate
Mainly out to India, in 2016 the export situation is actually very big change, because in 2015 it will amount about 60,000 tons, but in 2016 went to 10 million tons, to a large extent is a good export demand.
2016 relatively speaking, in fact, exports not so bad this year, but the chain does not have the change.
Exports mainly to the BRIC countries, India, Russia, Southeast Asia, Brazil, in April each year –10 month is the export season, and China the situation is the same.
on the valuation.
Currently PVC price change is very large, in March of this year fell to 5500 from 8000, down by nearly 2500, and now risen to 7500 and from 5500.
Purely from the perspective of futures research, in fact, the valuation of the level of PVC is still very important, and why do I say?
Because look downstream, the first profile, 23%, we can look at the profile of the industry’s annual Conch Profiles, 2014, 2015, when although the overall real estate is bad, but its profits are increasing, and in 2016, 2017
While real estate is good, but the company’s profits greatly reduced.
Fancy reported reduced by 70% due to the profile of the terminal price is very stable, PVC prices have gone up it will lose money, it is money down the price of PVC, PVC profile industry, so demand has been very stable, its terminal price is very stable.
The second part is a pipe, the pipe is a giant monopoly, just said that several manufacturers, raw material price fell when the pipe may also fall, when rising raw material prices will rise pipe
, so the growth of this industry is still there.
From the industry point of view equity investments would be a good industry.
But in fact 23% of the needs and profiles are related, PVC prices can box a range, above this range can be seen relatively significant demand shrinking, under certain sections of it will demand heavy volume.
Since the valuation mentioned, it is to talk about some of the costs upstream.
1 ton caustic soda is 2400 kWh of electricity is about 6-7 kg of coal, plus a few cents of fixed costs, the overall cost of doing PVC and coke, coal costs are related.
About the calcium carbide industry.
Because coke prices have been up, or relatively large, so the calcium carbide industry profits are relatively poor, now lost money.
Calcium carbide industry is overcapacity in the industry, PVC is not increased this year, so the demand for calcium carbide is not increased, the raw materials have gone up it can not raise the price, then its profits will be relatively low, the price transmission does not go.
See that the industry dynamics, calcium carbide industry, in fact, there is a problem, Xinjiang Tianye other manufacturers of calcium carbide production is stable, but small factories now the problem is particularly great.
comparison of profits Inner Mongolia and Shandong, and the Inner Mongolia region can be seen in the long run are all profitable, but is a marginal area in Shandong Province, the price is particularly good when it will be a little profit, but long-term
for it is break-even status.
Why 2016 Shandong profits so low?
Because outsourcing calcium carbide, the raw material is no job security.
Lose a little less good times, when the difference between the loss of more, so 2016 profit is very low.
But profit for this year has been not bad, and now the Shandong region is also full capacity.
From the price sense, can not be a loss of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia region, if it is really a loss, the entire PVC fundamental fact is not enough.
We can see that in 2014, in 2015 this time, in fact, worthy of bargain-hunting, very good buying period.
You make these two places is actually a long-term loss is not realistic.
Recalling that corresponds to what the market is also very obvious, PVC price is very low, it is the December 2014 and October 2015, when the price is below 5000.
If you carefully look at the industry structure, a look back is to buy the lowest point, even if the 2014 bargain-hunting may fall a little bit, but to rebound in 2015, that wave is very intense, more than 1000 dollars.
Now export profits big loss, because India did not how prices rise, domestic prices have to see a heaven.
The balance of supply and demand do still have to think about when exports might consider appropriate reduction.
on downstream conditions.
Because the price is relatively stable profile, so this year is not enough downstream, conch, two Three Gorges construction materials company’s stock is certainly rising up.
This year’s operating rate is worse than last year’s inventories are lower than last year, orders a little better, because this year the real estate it is no slip.
When you can see the profits so bad, 3 – May orders actually not much lower, it should be said that this branch profiles contribute part of.
Pipe so many years of positive growth, you see a few listed companies are also maintained in the growth rate of about 10%.
However profiles to die, leading conch these eight years have always been maintained at 40 million tons, demand will be good too good, not bad difference.
absolute amount of contrast on the overall supply and demand, we can see that housing starts so far there is no return to 2013 levels, but this year’s list to be higher than in 2013, can
see in addition to traditional real estate needs, PVC other downstream, including doing the film, daily necessities, plastic products, growth in demand this year is relatively large, and not just look at real estate, real estate even poor but downstream demand is still there.
2016 Nian rebound occurs throughout the year.
Supply of non-incremental, incremental demand-side real estate, in May 2016 to November demand are also, but in the spring, when demand weakened a bit, so from the price performance point of view, there is no callback 2016, from 5,000 dollars
rebounded to 8,000 dollars.
2017 spring big pullback, but then the overall price rebounded in May, you can see its entire housing starts and is directly related to a very high degree.
Look past these big waves of the stock market, including the 2014 fall 2015 to fall, corresponding principles are very clear and logical, in 2016 prices, rose in 2017, corresponding to housing starts, in fact, can be strictly verified.
Now upstream the overall operating rate is still relatively high, but further on, then in fact there is no more space, and may also stable at 75% of this level.
This year, the reality is particularly low inventories, inventories have been lower in 2017 than 2016 inventory of the six in August 2017, is to inventory, 2016 inventory was tired.
After the moment of supply and demand in this industry is particularly good, so dynamic industry chain is concerned, although the stock is very low, the upper reaches are now in pre-sale, the goods have been sold to the upstream month, traders have no cargo.
Downstream of more than 7,000 yuan price is still relatively boycott, although the price is hard up the downstream sections, but other varieties whole building materials, glass, cement, aluminum and steel are rising, slowly pushed back the time, then he should still be acceptable
the price is now relatively large negative or export this piece, this one loss does export more.
This week the price fell more, from 7500 futures price fell to 7000, as July data is not good, long Xianpao, Monday through Friday this week in fact, there has been no getting goods downstream.
However, the social stock has not tired of it, so the inventory trend continues to decline, prices rebounded today is the reason.
I think this thing is the price is high, and the anticipated demand is not, so we start and downstream also buy or not to buy, but in fact falsified, and now look at inventory accumulation or not, futures callback 600 dollars, the spot will
callback about 200 dollars, 7500 fell to the lowest 7350, as price increases today, so expectations unfulfilled.
Overall Strategy Summary down, mainly to see the industry as a whole is divided into a few pieces, supply, demand, alternative inventory.
This year is the incremental supply, but the future is not incremental, now, now is still very strict environmental protection of supply is expected to expected next year there may be a bias, Salt Lake shares should be cast 800,000 tons next year, though far
of expectations is not very good, but the current situation is very good.
Imports will put a little amount of exports will reduce the points.
Now the demand is good, because the data show in July, we followed in the end how to go on the property who do not know, it was anticipated future demand will be good, but also suggested that demand for real estate has taken the
, and later because of the purchase of the policy slip.
Now export losses, profit profile is not very good, so overall tendency to conclude the current demand is good, but uncertain future demand.
This is an alternative to, PVC and aluminum price ratio is in the middle of this, whether it is on the middle and lower inventories are very low, the valuation of this piece from the current price of 7500 is looking bearish, if the callback
to 7,000 more bad it will disappear.
I believe that supply and demand is currently very good, and now the callback because of the high price, the overall look down should still do more, to do more in fact, the greatest uncertainty is demand expectations.
In the end how the second half of the real estate needs, if in fact it has remained unchanged, it is determined to do more, but if the difference, then do more or questionable.
Considering there are still two to do more margin of safety, real estate sales are now ahead of housing starts, a leading real estate new construction PVC prices six months or so.
1– sales growth in July is still very good, and 15%, so even if the future is to determine the new construction down, but in fact it also has a lag of conduction, good sales will be in two or three months later
new construction will not slip so quickly.
Also now real estate stocks are very low.
Under the overall count, September and October do more, or a high chance of winning, re-evaluation in November.
6700-7000 support will be particularly strong.