Poker Interview | Jinbo: bifocal outlook focused on limiting the production of the actual enforcement of the amended wait Basis fix now depart

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Lead: bifocal disk trend is more of what factors driven by?

Interview Guest | Abo cafes founder, Jinbo reprint please contact the author poker king (ID: puoker) Authorization

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market is in a bullish bifocal voice seems still ringing in the ears, it appears successive decline, in the context of the fundamentals is not a big change, whether it is
What is the reason to promote deep down bifocal?
Compared futures fell, how to spot performance?
What changes in market sentiment?
What will be the follow-up of the stock market turn realizable?
Bonus coking industry supply-side reforms will have to appear and when?
Today, poker content teams invited to the cafe’s founder Abo Jinbo, as we unlock the secrets of those bifocal hidden.

1. Bifocal current market trend is mainly steel production outlook, the expected reduction in consumption reflected.
If the expected falsified, after the creation of the relative error, poor delivery base will start to repair war to correct divergences.

2. Spot has created some pessimism, but still stable price sales.
The next approach is likely to be: number of days available coke mills up or take the initiative to inventory – continue to suppress the price of coke – coke prices fell profits are compressed – passive limited production of coking coal coke price decline reduced demand – coal
fall.

3. Coal supply and demand will further whether surplus or rebalancing, is the focus of follow-up attention.

4. Consider at least a short-term rebound, but more likely after the rally to continue down, to fall with the fall of the stock depends on the speed and magnitude.
Bifocal strong spot has been greatly hampered the advancing speed of the Air Force, in October the “iron pollution” does not rule out the upset prices.
2019, coke there will be a new high.

5. 1801 is currently growing a “disease” stage, the industrial logic is not much right to speak.
Require waiting, is near the settlement, “set things right” Basis trading, waiting for the environmental impact limited production of 19 large and clear and then select the relevant policy direction.

PUOKE Heavy guests Interview

Jinbo,
Abo cafes founder and hope for the dark main investment research group.
He engaged in coal business for 25 years, currently working Fujian Sanming Steel quwo Min-coking.

full interview:

➤ Poker Finance
: you can see, recently bifocal all the way down, with a view of the market trend bifocal, is difficult to explain the fundamentals of the industry to judge this, how do you see?

Jinbo: expect the recent market slump bifocal really beyond many industry insiders, is now up – down, there is a great divergence, but still hints about market development
of.
August 25, 1709 Coke rose to 2394.5, the highest warehouse receipts exceed 100 costs, resulting in selling insurance is “good for the forced positions”; August 29, 1801 while the focal spot 200 yuan and 1709 liters of water, not only seriously overdrawn expectations
positive, and gives an excellent buy 09 cast 01 opportunities, one of which is the 1709 deliveries no small reason.

is the root stock futures, the futures the forward spot.
September to the end of time is still far, faced with safety and environmental protection, 19 great many uncertainties, all good things come to an end, after the collapse of fanaticism is very normal.

➤ Poker Finance: now, bifocal disk trend, more by what factors
promote?

Jinbo: currently bifocal market trend is mainly steel production outlook, the expected reduction in consumption reflected.
If the expected falsified, after the creation of the relative error, poor delivery base will start to repair war to correct divergences.
For this round to kill, the more I think from the perspective of the following:

1) after skyrocketing up almost no space to play down again, the way to create space for the 1801 war and design delivery path.

2) consider regulatory risk, the main long backhand or select funds “flee” led to the collapse.

3) 1801 contract into the “formative years”, the current disk trend can be said to be “ahead of price discovery”, it is also very likely be in the “creation of a relatively error.”

➤ Poker Finance: Compared to the fall of the disk, how to spot the situation?
How late the trend?

Jinbo: Spot has created some pessimism, but still stable price sales.
Steel coke game, temporarily gained the upper hand mills, coke spot inflection point, a decline of 50-80 in the first round.
Coking coal prices remain strong, the supply of low sulfur primary focus is more intense.

The next approach is likely to be: number of days available coke mills up or take the initiative to inventory – continue to suppress the price of coke – coke prices fell profits are compressed – passive limited production of coking coke prices fell fine
reduced demand for coal – coal prices fell.

But beginning in October cut-off limit production environment may have a greater impact on the spot market and uncertain futures disk.
If coking limited production results fell short of expectations, coke late spot will there is a big downside.

coal situation is relatively better fundamentals, although demand has determined will be reduced, but then began to focus Dongchu steel companies, there is a safety inspection at the end, and then down the Spring Festival holiday, the two sessions, supply
the reduction is also determined.
Therefore, the price is difficult to have a more substantial decline.

➤ Poker Finance: upstream and downstream mind what has changed?
How the overall market sentiment?
How to stop limit environmental impact?

Jinbo: Coke, the current steel is more powerful, low-cost treatment favorable opportunity to make use of the port for delivery of the goods, the first strong focus on high-sulfur low heat to start, and
initiative to inventory signs.
Coke plant coke capacity and financial pressure by the impact, may accept lower prices.
Currently the futures market filled with pessimism, but the coal companies are not so pessimistic, some believe that coke prices in October coke may still put up, support confidence comes from the supply and demand in advance to limit production a month may arise since the beginning of October
mismatch.

In addition, some local coal mines orders declined, but because the inventory is still low, so the emotions were not much affected.
State-owned coal mines is relatively optimistic, security upgrades, had winter approaching, coke steel companies not to rush shots to suppress the price of coal.

At present environmental policies around I see is dazzling, there are many “technical” loopholes and water, stop enforcement of environmental limits and the actual results may be better than the policy itself, so the actual impact is difficult to assess the need
real-time tracking and evaluation, haze index could be an important factor.
Stop restrictions on environmental protection around the city there are large uncertainties, such as Shanxi Linfen is not within the scope of 26 + 2, but also start the appropriate measures.

coking currently limited production speed of 2 – 36 hours to extend the coking time and 48 hours, corresponding to the limited production rate of about 45% and 60%, and 30% of the limited production rate differ greatly.
So a lot of suspense and leaving room for maneuver, which will have an important impact on the supply and demand of coke.

➤ Poker Finance: What other questions would follow the market trend impact, we need to pay close attention
of?

Jinbo: if the coal supply and demand will further re-balance or surplus, is the focus of follow-up attention.
Enforcement

1) starting in October focal steel stop restrictions on environmental policy and the actual results, focusing on coke inventory data.

2) security upgrade coal 19 before a large portion of coal discontinued if required.

3) Shanxi Coking Coal Group railways long association 2019 year.

4) 19 large policy direction.

➤ Poker Finance: Do you think there is a subsequent disk callback possible?
Do you think this wave down a callback or long-term downward trend established?

Jinbo: is now in deep callback in.
The current bear trend is obvious, the right time to do more, but all varieties of premium excessive short and very dangerous.
Moreover, futures and so also the spot, right?
In addition, the Commission called for the maintenance of stability requires attention.
So, I think there are at least a short-term rebound.

is currently playing pessimism, need a falsification process, not how unlikely spot start fall down futures to complete such a situation.
Therefore, the possibility to continue down the rebound after the large downside depends on the spot with the fall of the speed and magnitude.
But strong bifocal spot has been greatly hampered the advancing speed of the Air Force, in October the “iron pollution” does not rule out the upset prices.

As many people believe, bifocal long-term downward trend has been formed, I hold opposing views.
This wave of market, only a bifocal soaring callback.
2019, coke there will be a new high.
Shrinking resources and protective mining coking coal provides the cost of support, environmental protection further escalation, launched CDQ, 4 m 3 furnace phased out, etc., dividend policy for coking industry side will also change gradually.

➤ Poker Finance: in the disk operation, if there is any advice you can share with us?

Jinbo: Currently, there is not much disk trend and fundamentals necessarily linked, so I suggest to wait and see, wait and environmental impact limited production of 19 after a large clear policies
then choose the direction.
Now the “disease” growing stage 1801, the industrial logic is not much right to speak.
We are waiting for is near the settlement, basis trading “order out of chaos.”

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