Memories can be misery, did not buy Tencent did not buy property: 1998 Why you should buy a flat rather than a business? (Mathematical Principles of good luck)

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Why you should buy property in 1998 rather than entrepreneurial

“Memories can be misery, did not buy Tencent did not buy property.”

Real estate crazy for so many years, all the way is still crazy.
Not only how Guangzhou rose up, even I grew up in Xiangyang city, it has also “over a million.”

said Tencent, the share price higher and higher, as if out of the force of gravity, people think breaking the limit of large-scale companies.

An old inspirational piece: 98, 99 Ma, Ma, Ding Lei, with 500,000 entrepreneurs rather than to buy a house.
The media praise, song of chicken soup.

BusinessWeek statistics entrepreneurial success rate is about 2%, assuming successful entrepreneurs earn 50 million (not low bar), entrepreneurs per capita rate of return is 100 times × 2% = 2 times.

If the time to buy a house, fool rose at least 5 to 10 times, the success rate of 100%, count mortgage lever (3 times), the actual return nearly everyone 15-30 times.

So, in 1998, as a rational decision maker, you should buy a house, rather than business.

Because, stay in an area of ​​100 percent luck, might, ability, effort is more important than talent.

What determines your future earnings?

a person to become rich or poor, doomed in the end is the day or by the hard work?
Talent and ability, have much effect on the money?

In 1996, the Brookings Institution’s two experts, computer simulations, developed an artificial model of social wealth accumulation, called “sugar fields.”

They are intended by computer simulation can be studied include environmental change, genetic inheritance, trade, market mechanisms, the accumulation of wealth, and so on a wide range of social phenomena.
In particular, in a computer simulation, it can be extracted at any time to analyze a number of variables, such as average life expectancy Sugar, range, optimal path selection, and the like.

as cruel

The results of computer simulation and the real world.

“Fortune” real and logical reasons for what is it?
The answer is:

+ born talent Bing different location + random luck.

It seems that God designed the fate of individual time, very wise.

“origin position” may be “country of birth, birth family, born of years” can also be generalized into:

your trades, you married the man.

you bet on the race track or betting jockey?

Morningstar’s Pat Dorsey believes that more important than horse racing jockey gambling.

The investment community has a saying: “bet jockey, not the horse races.”

That is: the quality of the management team is more important than the quality of the enterprise.

Pat Dorsey said: investor’s task is to focus on instead of horses jockey’s body.
Because the most important trait is that they may last for many years moat of business structural characteristics, which is not easily replicated by competitors.

horse racing analogy is not precise enough, because the horse farm, mules and ponies and thoroughbred horse race will not be together.

In business, mules and ponies and thoroughbred horse contest indeed together.

Progressively, the company how to play hands of cards, also did not start to get cards is more important.
The best poker expert to get one pair of cards, he is not amateur players get a chance to win Flush.

Although you can sometimes shrewd strategy to create a competitive advantage in difficult operating industries (such as Dell or Southwest Airlines), but there is a cruel fact on the market: some companies in the structure is better than the other companies
Pharmaceutical or even bank mismanagement, its long-term return on capital or a refinery or better than the best auto parts company.

Where ox or cow.

Is it just to illustrate this article: Women are afraid to marry the wrong husband, male fear of the wrong?

Why millet fly up and then fall from the outlet?

Lei Jun said outlet, be regarded as so-called advantages of the track, or Dorsey excellent race.

Initially, pigs can fly.
Later, there is some difficulty children.

Lei Jun said:

We focus online, but missed the next wave of replacement county line market.
Millet entire business model is to high-quality, cost-effective.
Cost efficiency revolution is to improve efficiency in the prevailing market conditions only electricity supplier to be able to complete the efficiency of millet.
So we focused on in the past few years which electricity supplier.

But there is a big flaw, electricity suppliers accounted for only 10% of total retail sales, to date 90% of people buy things or to buy online, online means that even if you are 100%
you only 10% of the market.

This is called a conditional probability.

After this realized, veteran Lei Jun made a series of strategic adjustments, rallied again.

give you a beautiful picture, your task is to guess the person’s career: the model or staff?
Many people will guess the former.
In fact, the model number is much less than the staff, namely: employee base is much greater.

So, in terms of probability, I should guess staff.

Why do you not perceive the probability of intuition?

such a simple truth, why talk about it so complicated?

Look at a probability question:

If there is one person carrying the HIV virus, and then assume that there is a hundred percent inspection can really carry the virus diagnosed in 1 per thousand
people; finally, suppose that people who do not carry HIV in check, will falsely detect 5% of the people who carry the virus.
Suppose we just find a person to carry out this check, it has been positive.
I do not know if people get sick this history, I ask: the probability of HIV carriers He really is how much?

A: This might be a real patient in a thousand that, it could be 999 healthy people 5% false positives, so he is the probability of HIV carriers is (1 /
(999 × 5% + 1) = 1.96%)

is not intuitive and a little different?

again a conditional probability model:

taxi on a rainy night accident, a witness said the scene and saw the car was blue.
Known: 1, the accuracy of the identification witnesses blue and green taxi 80%; 2, the local taxi 85% green, 15% blue.
I ask you: is blue taxi bike accident probability of how much?

A: is the probability of the vehicle but the vehicle is seen as green, the blue car is (0.85 × 0.2), and the car is the car blue as blue car probability is (0.15 × 0.8), so
the car really is the probability that the blue car ((0.15 × 0.8) / [(0.85 × 0.2) + (0.15 × 0.8)] = 41.38%).

Because of the large base of green car, the likelihood of eyewitness wrong or greater.

brutally simple chicken soup look, which is why the innate luck, track or horse racing, cock industry, outlet, talent and hard work are far more important.

Why education evolved into an arms race

Today, few friends, and we talk to Dr. David Princeton children’s education.
I figure a bit, the basic topic is:

  • on my children on an international school or public school?
    Which is more likely to enroll in American schools?
  • If my child to the United States in high school, he would be a higher acceptance rate into the pond do?

It seems parents are smart, are wondering off-site entrance of globalization, all know to create better conditions for their children probability.

“from 0-1” author Peter • Steele said: Today, Harvard and other schools admission, has become a super intelligence test.

• Bill Gates is also a child of the remedial classes.
Zuckerberg attended high school, Phillips Exeter Academy is one of America’s top private boarding schools, by “The Economist” as “Anglo-American private high school in the first tier.”

The school average SAT scores are often ranked first in more than 300 private boarding high school in the United States, each year nearly one-third of graduates were admitted to the Ivy League and other elite schools.

Harvard has a better Niubi conditional probability, the famous private high schools have better Harvard conditional probability, cram schools have better conditions for private high probability.

This will form the continuous advance of sneaking, education evolved into the never-ending arms race.

The world belongs to what kind of person?

French mathematician Laplace said:. “Life’s most important questions, in most cases, the problem is really just probabilities”

the world belongs only understands probability, people can create conditional probability.

European Casino then there have been a God of Gamblers, only won more than.
It was discovered that because there was a crack on the wheel, Bug physical sense cause some numbers appear higher frequencies.
This is regarded as another dimension of “arbitrage.”

3G Capital Lehman when he was studying at Harvard, decided to finish four years of college courses in three years time.
He learned all previous exams are archived in the library, so he found a shortcut.

Lehman did not take long to notice, annual exams only minor changes, so he has to do is to test the knowledge points before you can learn.
In his final 20 years of age to complete their studies.

This is the discovery of the “crack” arbitrage mode: suitably regularly break “black” in, directly change the conditional probabilities.

Why do you have a “win by law”?

Conclusion 1: You can not change the luck, but you can change luck luck;

Conclusion 2: the situation to the advantage of their own, are all efforts of

For example, for the enterprise, the goal should not be a strategic plan is to achieve or maintain sales, but to build and maintain a competitive advantage.

For individuals, should go to the right place, digging wells in water in many places.
Never try to cross the desert pride.

Look Alpha Dog playing chess, one of the biggest feeling is: it is extremely powerful, but hardly at what local skilled artist.

Cherish is wonderful because often under desperate counterattack.
Smart as Alpha Dog, never put the horns of their own kind of situation.

Pine Valley wrote: “in order to exact to Clipsal,” The Art of War is being misread in most of the sentence.
The biggest misunderstanding is to Clipsal odd, do not read qi, read ji, is a mathematical vocabulary, odd, even odd, the ancients also known as “more than odd”, the excess part, are soldiers arranged, by remaining
is Jones, a critical time with.
Simply put, it is the reserve.

Notes Cao Cao said: “The first out-wars is positive, after a surprising”, is marvelous, has a concept.
Do not put all the cards at once over, stay in a hand, playing a critical time out.

In a sense, this is the pursuit of superior force decisive critical moment.


For not too many resources, can not compete with the powerful Alpha Dog ordinary people do?

1, what time do the right thing, trying to focus on the (relative) advantage situation.

2, Zhicuojiugai, do not put up resistance in place is not good, unless you change the kind of “not good.”

3, when it is correct Sike in the end.

personal way of thinking, and behavior, perhaps the most important of the conditional probability.

Principia Mathematica

Good luck in the short term, or will not work.

Over time, good or bad luck, will be in accordance with the principles of mathematics, gradually stabilize.

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