Hawk and Dove dispute, who is at the next Fed chairman? These 10 candidates you need to know

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Lead: Who will be the next Fed chairman?

text | Xieya Xuan Liu Yaxin source | Yan Xuan global macro, ID: zhaoshanghongguan Edit | Poker investor, please indicate the source

key point: this Fed chairman will term of office expires in February 2018, and as the time draws near, Trump will nominate the next President of the Federal Reserve who served under perturbations become
an important factor in financial markets nervous, because in the current US economic recovery, inflation has been relatively sluggish environment, to assess the current situation of different can mean different path of monetary policy and financial market environment.
According to the odds on the betting site Predictit point of view, the current potential candidates for chairman of the Federal Reserve total of 10, but the mainstream market is expected to focus on Fed Governor Jerome Powell, a former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, the current Federal Reserve Chairman Xi Yelun, Stanford University professor
john Taylor four candidates.

After September this year, Fed Vice Chairman Fischer resigned, seven seats on the Federal Reserve Board members have four seats are vacant, and four vacancies member of the President shall be appointed by the Trump, this
since the establishment of the Federal Reserve is 1913, the same holds four Fed president the power to appoint members of the Board of situation for the first time.
Prior to the departure of two of its members were Daniel Tarullo (hawks), Stanley Fischer (centrist), while the ten candidates in addition to candidates for Federal Reserve Chairman of the Federal Reserve, there are some potential candidates for a Fed governor, which mostly hawks, and therefore the future of our
more likely to face a more hawkish Fed.

Recently, the market expectations for the Fed chairmanship has also had an impact on financial markets, as Kevin Warsh relative to other candidates and current Fed chairman a more hawkish attitude, the rise and fall of his election possibilities
more consistent with the short-term ups and downs of the dollar index.
Is expected before the dust settles, this factor will continue to pose impact on the dollar index, Powell and Taylor elected to contribute to a stronger dollar is expected to rise, while Powell was elected the expected rise Yellen and may bring the dollar index fell slightly.

Who is the next Fed chairman

this Fed chairman will term of office expires in February 2018, and as close to the time of
Trump will nominate the next President of the Federal Reserve who served as an important factor in disturbances in financial markets nervous, because in the current US economic recovery, inflation has been relatively sluggish environment for different assessments of the current situation can mean different currency
path policy and financial market environment.
According to the odds on the betting site Predictit point of view, the current potential candidates for chairman of the Federal Reserve total of 10, but the mainstream market is expected to focus on Fed Governor Jerome Powell, a former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, the current Federal Reserve Chairman Xi Yelun, Stanford University professor
john Taylor four candidates.

a, Fed Governor Jerome H. Powell

Powell stance on monetary policy belongs to the centrist, the attitude is clearly more moderate policy hawks among the many candidates, Powell is expected to be elected if the expected financial market is more favorable.

In early 10, Powell delivered a speech on the US financial regulatory reform, expressed confidence in financial deregulation agreement.
Used to limit speculation Volcker agreement can be simplified, but regulators will always reserve the right to strict regulation.
This is very consistent with the demands of Trump relax financial regulation, combined with the background of their status as a Fed governor and government departments, the market surged for Powell is expected to be elected, the candidate is the highest voice.

Second, a former Fed governor Kevin Warsh

Kevin Warsh born in 1970, 47-year-old, is the most candidates for Federal Reserve Chairman
youngest, she holds a BA from Stanford University and a JD from Harvard Law School, served as vice president and executive director at Morgan Stanley M & a department, from 2002-2006, he served as executive Secretary of the economic policy and the national economic Council in the White House
special Assistant to the President, in February 2006 served as a Fed governor, and always uphold the hawkish stance, in 2008 became the peak of the economic crisis on Wall Street liaison with the Federal Reserve.

2011 Nian 3 Yue, Warsh resigned from the Fed, during office, he has focused on issues related to financial markets and monetary policy transmission problems.
Warsh is currently a visiting scholar at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University.

Kevin Warsh clear stance on monetary policy hawks.
Warsh skeptical of interest rate cuts and QE, the only question is the 2010 expansion of the Fed’s QE director, he has publicly opposed the quantitative easing policy, and said that in the past few years, over-loose monetary policy has led to
the Fed was shackled hands and feet and become slaves of the stock market.

In August this year, Warsh speech at BIS proposed, should be wary of the Fed to expand their powers too much.
Unconventional monetary policy during the financial crisis greatly expanded the powers of the Federal Reserve, the Fed is applied to the activities of the big banks a new control, to have an impact on return on capital, and even some non-bank institutions also enhanced some control.
This may mean Warsh Trump’s deregulation policy for more agree.

As the media reported that the US Federal Reserve Chairman President Trump met on the issue with Kevin Warsh, Warsh become a hot candidate for the Presidency of the Federal Reserve.

Third, the current Fed Chairman Janet Yellen

familiarity with the current Federal Reserve Chairman Xi Yelun already high, no need little introduction.
Yellen is because the Democratic Party, and was elected president stressed Trump ago, Republicans want to select, and support monetary policy in the policy in favor of normalization, such as the need for financial regulation in the affirmative, and the policy intentions of Trump seems
substandard, coupled with public speaking after Yellen’s also showing signals may not be re-elected, so the market generally considered the possibility of elected Yellen is not high.

But as the time draws near nomination, Yellen relationship with Trump has eased, July Yellen also had breakfast with her daughter Trump, resigned ago
Fed Vice Chairman Fischer said Yellen seasoned, good explanation of the policy, Trump should be allowed to remain in office, the possibility of re-election of the current Yellen still exist.

Fourth, Stanford University professor John Taylor

John Brian Taylor was born in 1946, 71-year-old, obtained in 1968, Princeton University
BA in Economics, and earned a doctorate in economics from Stanford University in 1973.
He is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, editor of “macroeconomic Manual”.
1973-1980, Taylor taught at Columbia University from 1980 to 1984 taught at Princeton University, Stanford University and later returned to teach so far, professor of economics at Stanford introductory courses and Monetary Economics doctoral programs.
He has been actively involved in public policy, served as deputy finance minister in the first term of George · w · Bush administration.
His book “Global Financial Warriors” chronicles this period.
He is a member of George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers government, and also a senior economist at Ford’s Council of Economic Advisers Carter administration.

research, Taylor’s main areas of expertise and academic macroeconomics and monetary economics and international economics.
He studied modern monetary theory and policy of central banks and financial markets around the world laid the foundation for the analysis.
He proposed a price and wage model in 1979 and 1980 studies published, also known as the new Keynesian model.
In 1993, he proposed the “Taylor rule”, “Taylor rule” has a profound effect on monetary policy rules later study, by former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Yellen approval.
In 2005 the US Treasury had Alexander Hamilton Award in 2005 from Stanford University and George Shultz Public Service Award.
In 2012, he was included in the list of 50 most influential figures of force, “Bloomberg Markets” magazine, Taylor Thomson Reuters as possible future Nobel Prize winners.
Taylor is the author of “Handbook of Macroeconomics”, “Global Financial fighter: never talked about after the” 9.11 “in the world of international finance Story”, “The first principle: the reconstruction of the five elements of American prosperity.”

Taylor has always advocated a rule-based monetary policy that monetary policy should have a strategy, he has criticized the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates too low for too long in the time after the Great Recession, and pointed out that the central bank failed to prevent the economy from volatility
including 2008–09 years of financial crisis, that if the Fed followed the Taylor rule, then it before the crisis in relation to raise interest rates, which may reduce the risk of damage.
So Taylor’s policy orientation is also considered hawkish bias.

October 11, Trump met with Taylor, and discussed with him the job of Fed chairman, participants also include Burns Vice President, Treasury and other help to identify Nuqin
the Fed’s next chairmanship of team members, So Taylor is now one of the hottest candidates for chairman of the Federal Reserve.

five, Gary Cohn, president of Goldman Sachs

Gary David Cohn was born in 1960, 57, 1982, Cohen graduated from the United States
during college, graduation time when the great Depression, had engaged in aluminum product sales in the Iron and steel company, and later seized the opportunity through self-study financial knowledge to work successfully entered the Exchange, and in 1990 was hired Goldman Sachs, in 1996, was appointed as the commodity sector
director, in 2002 was named head of FICC entire sector.
In 2003, he was appointed co-head of equity in 2004, Cohn was appointed co-head of the global securities business, in June 2006, became President and Co-Chief Operating Officer and Director.
January 20, 2017, Cohen became director of the National Economic Council Trump Government (NEC).
Trump under the leadership of the government, Cohen was quoted in the media as a supporter of globalism, and was dubbed “globalist Gary” and “carbon tax Cohn” nickname.
Cohn and Jared Kushner, Ivanka Trump and Tina Powell together opponents of the government called Trump’s “The Wall Street Wings.”
Meanwhile, the “Wall Street Journal” will be Cohen described as “economic policy of power”, “New York Times” Trump said he was “an important figure in employment, business and economic growth of.”

From the stand, Cohn and regulatory support to maintain low interest rates in line with the tendency Trump policy intentions, but, compared to other candidates, Cohn is more a lack of monetary policy and macroeconomic
background and work background, which is necessary for the Fed Chairman.
When

In July this year, Trump “Wall Street Journal” interview, he said that in addition to Yellen, but he also consider Cohen to become the next chairman of the Fed, it has been the media before Cohn
Yellen is considered to take over the chairmanship of the popular candidate, but later in the evening Charlottesville riots occurred August 11, Cohn has publicly criticized Trump responded in the event of harboring a racist, after which he was elected Chairman of the Federal Reserve
calls declined.

Six, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

Neel Tushar Kashkari was born in 1973, 44 years old, respectively, in 1995 and he
1998 bachelor and master’s degrees in mechanical engineering from University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
After doing some time aeronautical engineer, Kashkari enter the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School, studying MBA.
After an MBA in 2002 to enter the San Francisco office of Goldman Sachs in 2006 as a special assistant to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in 2008, approved by the Senate to become Treasury assistant secretary for international economics and development, the Ministry of Finance during his tenure, he
response to the financial crisis and the subprime crisis has played an important role in one of the most memorable is the Troubled asset relief Program TARP.
In 2009, Kashkari left the government, and began working for Pacific Investment Management Co. (Pimco), leading the company to enter the stock market.
January 2013, he resigned from Pimco, he began to run for office.
A year later, he announced his candidacy as governor of California, ranking second in the non-partisan primaries in California, but lost in the general election the incumbent governor Jerry Brown in 2015, its chairmanship of the Minneapolis Fed.

Kashkaris attitude towards monetary policy has been relatively dovish.
This year, he repeatedly made it clear not agree to raise interest rates too quickly.
In the September monetary policy meeting, most Fed officials agree to raise interest rates three times this year, while Cash Cali is one of the members disagree.
October 2017, Kashkaris said that unless see the overall unemployment rate dropped significantly, indicating that we have consumed the remaining slack in the labor market, inflation expectations unexpectedly rose or see, or tend not before the core PCE inflation plus 2%
interest.

Neel Kashkaris is the current attitude of most dovish candidates, king Bill Gross debt and new debt Wang Jeffrey Gundlach is more support for Neel Kashkaris as Fed chairman , but it also agreed
chairman of the Fed’s hope is very small.
Kashkaris himself has said that the leadership of the Fed’s Yellen in doing a great job, and may be renewed at the desired Yellen as Fed considering new chairman.

Seven, dean of Columbia Business School Glenn Hubbard

Robert Glenn Hubbard was born in 1958, 59-year-old, he was in 1979 with honors
received a Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Science at the University of central Florida, and received master’s and doctorate in economics from Harvard University in 1983.
Since 1988, Hubbard taught at Columbia University since 2004, he served as dean of Columbia Business School, is also the current members of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Council of Economic Advisers.
From 2001 to 2003, he served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Chairman of the Economic Policy Committee of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the White House National Economic Council and National Security Committee and other staff, and served as Mitt Romania in 2008 and 2012
Romney’s presidential campaign economic adviser.
In 2012 he was included in the Bloomberg world’s 50 most influential financial experts.

2017 Nian, Glenn Hubbard said the United States will achieve the Fed’s inflation target of 2% in the “near future” if the US Fed’s target rate of inflation, the Fed will push more logical to tighten monetary policy, thus
helped the dollar rise; if favorable and successfully deliver on large tax cuts and increases in infrastructure spending after taking office Trump’s plan, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates need to speed up the overall hawkish stance.
And, Hubbard Trump agreed that the United States in recent years, relying too much on the Federal Reserve to support the opinion of the Economic and July this year, Hubbard and another candidate Kevin Warsh co-author, Trump believes the government can implement to maintain a 3%
economic growth targets.

Hubbard Trump’s political views and more consistent, but the relative lack of political experience in the field of monetary policy, than the possibility of elected John Taylor and Kevin Warsh lower.

Eight, the former Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig

Thomas Hoenig was born in 1946, 71 years old this year, he has 贝尼迪克坦
BA in Economics and Mathematics Institute, master’s and doctorate in economics at Iowa State University.
1973, Hoenig as an economist in the field of banking supervision to join the Kansas City Fed, 1981–1986 was appointed Vice-President, 1991 – 2011, Hoenig chaired the Kansas City Fed, in 2010, he served as the Fed’s vote in a committee.
In 2011 he retired from the Kansas City Fed.
In 2012, Hoenig became a member of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Board of Directors and currently serves as Vice-Chairman.

During the Fed, Hoenig is considered to be hawks.
January 2010, Hoenig said that in order to control long-term inflation pressures, Fed should tighten monetary policy stance as soon as possible, Hoenig said it would resume the policy to weigh the short and long term economic and financial objectives more equitable process should be undertaken as soon as possible.
Fed can not afford the consequences of monetary policy in the short-sighted.
Long-term interest rates will remain at low levels may result in improper asset allocation, increasing long-term inflation and rising unemployment, although these risks do not exist today, but may occur in the medium to long term.
The short-term interest rates at near zero levels may actually impede the recovery process in financial markets.
December 2010, Hoenig of the Federal Reserve decided to maintain an accommodative cast against it.

On financial regulation, Hoenig in favor of large banks to raise capital standards, hoping to restore the economy of the Great Depression Glass – Shidigeer Act (Glass-Steagall Act), the bill in investment banking and commercial
to build a firewall between banks; orderly liquidation plan is still required resolution, the issue of “too big to fail” for the US economy continues to be a threat; on 11 May 2012, said regulators should be a more pure
system instead of “complicated” global bank capital rules simply require large financial institutions to hold more capital, banks hold a large proportion of tangible assets to tangible securities should be 10%.

banking supervision jobs during the Obama administration has been in a vacant state.
Hoenig’s own experience from the point of view, he is more likely to hold office in charge of banking supervision, but also from the past stand watch, Hoenig supported strict regulation, which Trump wish to relax with the direction of financial regulation is inconsistent, therefore Hoenig was nominated
less likely as Fed chairman.

Nine, former economic adviser to George W. Bush’s Lawrence Lindsey

Lawrence Lindsey was born in 1954, 63 years old, he has a Bowden
Bachelor of college (Bowdoin College), and master’s and doctorate in economics from Harvard University.
From 1991 to 1997, Lindsey served as a Fed governor, 2001-2002, Lindsey during President George W. Bush served as Chairman of the National Economic Council, and played an important role in George W. Bush’s tax cut plan.
But then he expected the United States the total cost of the Iraq war up to $ 200 billion during his tenure as Bush economic adviser, strongly opposed the Iraq war, the Bush administration was eventually dismissed.
In addition, he served as Associate Professor of Economics at Harvard University.
Lindsey author of “Growth Experiment: new tax policy is how to change the United States”, “economic Puppet Master: a lesson from the halls of power” and “conspiracy of the ruling class: how to escape forever?
“And other books.
He is currently a visiting scholar Lindsey Group CEO (a budget advisory body) and the American Enterprise Institute.
Because of its rich and matching qualifications, Lindsey more than once a candidate is regarded as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Lindsey from past public statements and see attitude, Lindsey overall attitude is more hawkish:

2017 Nian 3 Yue, Lindsey said the Fed in March
have to raise interest rates, or will be far behind the situation, global inflation risks rise, now need to take measures to stop it.

2015 Nian, Lindsey said that if the Fed continues to postpone raising interest rates, bond market volatility will increase.
If the Fed does not raise interest rates to continue, so to a certain point in time, a series of US economic data will become less attractive, such as rising inflation, the market is painful adjustment will occur.

ten, John Allison former BB & T Bank CEO

John Allison was born in 1948, this 69-year-old, in 1971, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill get
Bachelor of business Administration Angeles, 1974, an MBA from Duke University’s Fuqua School of business.
In 1971, Allison joined BB & T (US regional banks) and on the job until his retirement in 2008, he retired on the CEO position BB & T, the 2010-2012 Allison served as CEO American liberal think tank Cato Institute, the agency is committed to
to promote the launch of the public policy of individual freedom, limited government, free markets and the principles of peace, communication and understanding.

Allison is a liberal, support the gold standard, on whether the Fed should set interest rates themselves are skeptical of capital requirements for banks and banking regulators held a consistent position, but
the market will worry about unpredictable consequences of his appointment would generate monetary policy, the market worried that the appointment of the monetary policy will produce unpredictable results

However, Trump had previously Fed intends to appoint John Allison
director, but was refused, October 11, Allison said to the media, really do not want as Fed chairman, “Some say the Fed is non-political, but it is actually very political”, it would appear, John Allison basic
He can not serve any of the next Fed chairman, but he did not rule out the possibility to become a Fed governor
, and that Walsh would be a good candidate for chairman of the Federal Reserve.

after September this year, Fed Vice Chairman Fischer resigned, seven seats on the Federal Reserve Board members have four seats are vacant, and four vacancies members nominated by the President Trump
appointment, since this is the Federal Reserve was established in 1913, with a four Fed president holds the power to appoint members of the Board of situation for the first time.
Prior to departure, respectively, is Daniel Tarullo (hawks), Stanley Fischer (centrist), and in addition to the above-mentioned candidate candidate for the Presidency of the Federal Reserve, there are some candidates for a Fed governor, which mostly hawks, so we are more likely to face a future more
Fed hawks.

Recently, the market expectations for the Fed chairmanship has also had an impact on financial markets, as Kevin Warsh relative to other candidates and current Fed chairman a more hawkish attitude, the rise and fall of his election possibilities
more consistent with the short-term ups and downs of the dollar index.
Is expected before the dust settles, this factor will continue to pose impact on the dollar index, Powell and Taylor elected to contribute to a stronger dollar is expected to rise, while Powell was elected the expected rise Yellen and may bring the dollar index fell slightly.

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