2018 major reshuffle: the photovoltaic industry before the last rite, the approaching storm

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Lead: article takes you understand the trend of the photovoltaic industry next year!

text | Treatment rain Source | three money twenty-two, ID: ThreeQian Edit | Poker investor, please indicate the source

this is my article and Mr. Li Xianshou (Note: Xianshou Li, chairman of the Department of Yuhui, China PV industry legend; his brother Le Gendre Department of another listed company Jinko PV chairman) during the discussion of essays,
wanted to talk attracted everyone’s attention and discussion.

then by “Newell PV” founder Wang Shu-chuan teacher combing and re-edited the second time this release.
The author of this clarification, the core idea and logic to be expressed in this article are: the impact

2018 Nian due to the decline in China’s subsidies, the United States 201 pairs of anti-Japanese FIT subsidies cut and other factors, the global PV market demand

In view of this, the upstream PV manufacturing industry will usher in a larger reshuffle; and a similar case in 2012, after the shuffle PV installed cost per watt fallen sharply, the PV industry into a large grid parity

In the area of ​​better resource conditions, photovoltaic power, even become the cheapest local energy (currently the lowest international photovoltaic electricity has reached 1.786 cents / kWh, equivalent to 0.12 yuan / kWh).

As the usher grid parity, the PV industry will no longer be subject to severe impact of subsidies, development of the industry will stabilize; this time, the PV industry will have a real business leader.

After grid parity, body mass and the status of the photovoltaic industry is the magnitude of the difference, the leader of the enterprise will have the potential to one hundred billion market capitalization.

PV industry trend for the next year, I have the following pre-judgment.

a, the silicon material aspects: a price war would be very tragic

1, the silicon material expansion serious but reduce demand.

2018 years 45 microns diamond wires will become mainstream, the number of the sheet will be further improved, the number of units of the silicon wafer material needs will be substantially reduced, only 40 GW transformation to polycrystalline diamond wire sheet
will be reduced so that the upstream silicon material needs more than 40,000 tons.

and the same silicon chip the power demand of less silicon material.

Thus, the monocrystalline silicon wafer alternative industries historical trend polysilicon sheet will further reduce the demand for silicon material.

2018 years silicon materials to add at least 115 thousand tons of production capacity.

comprising: Oriental desired silicon production of 15,000 tons release, GCL will add 40,000 tons of silicon production capacity in Xinjiang, Granville shares in Leshan 2.5 tons capacity will also be
the second half of 2018 put into operation, there will be 25,000 tons of production capacity in Baotou.

According to our survey data is the actual silicon material obtained in 120% yield nameplate will yield, so Tongwei Leshan header total of 50,000 tons of silicon material nameplate capacity corresponding to the actual yield is 60,000 tons

2, the silicon material price war next year is very tragic.

I still believe my judgment, silicon material prices next year will be very fierce price war.
The following reasons:

production capacity due to the large silicon materials, silicon materials and the next year demand will be significantly down.

Meanwhile, various lower cost.

to Granville shares an example, one kilogram of silicon materials power consumption of the whole process was about 60 degrees, extremely good cost control, semi-annual report 2017 in accordance with the data of the silicon Tongwei 1 ton material Total Cost 57000
yuan, Granville shares the third quarter of 2017 to complete the upgrading of the production line is expected to further reduce costs, the cost of new capacity and may even be less than 5 million yuan.

per kg of silicon material prices next year at the latest when the third quarter will decline to 85 per kilogram.
But many of my friends do not believe, I still maintain that judgment, waiting for market conditions next year to witness it.

Second, the silicon components: universal diamond wire, serious overcapacity, monocrystalline or 60% market

1, technological innovations to achieve cost increase

after transformation of diamond wire cutting, the yield across the wafer can improve end immediately by 25%.

Take the piece of industry leading polysilicon GCL, for example, he estimated diamond wire cutting after the transformation is completed, wafer production capacity will reach 25GW.

2 technical route, an alternative to silicon chip may have come

From the production layout point of view, this year there are two giants expansion extremely crazy, one Lungi shares (601,012)
the other is the Central share (002,129), the two companies are in the A-share market, in recent years, each with two private placement, issuing amount is not small.

Among the companies in the photovoltaic industry, Lungi shares and the Central share capital strength is the strongest two, Lungi net assets of about 11 billion, the net assets of the Central State to complete the injection Sunergy and private placement
later, the net assets will reach 12 billion.

The two giants are invariably chose the route silicon wafer technology.

is expected in August 2018, Lungi shares last one plant construction is completed, production capacity reached 25 GW, the Central share my earlier estimate of 22 GW; but according to a recent communique of view, another three
Last quarter, the Central share of single crystal silicon wafer production capacity will reach 23 GW.

plus Jinko of 5.5 GW, JA Solar to 3.5 GW next year only silicon chip giant’s production capacity will easily break 60 GW.

If the next year, demand remained stable throughout the PV modules, or even a slight decline, then the proportion of single-crystal components will easily break 60%.

3, wafer production capacity serious excess

silicon wafer capacity expansion crazy, after the transformation of the polycrystalline diamond wire cut sheets, but also to enhance the overall production capacity to 25%, whole
wafer capacity, serious excess.

next year polysilicon film manufacturers price war will cost in cash, this is a dead cert, and those who have not had time to transform mortar cutting capacity, permanently exit the stage of history.

As the silicon wafer production capacity is extremely huge, even those who have completed the transformation of diamond wire cutting polycrystalline silicon wafer production capacity next year face battle for survival.

three component areas: efficiency into the mainstream, prices fell faster

1,300W + efficient components will become the mainstream

Because next year
silicon material prices will have fallen sharply, wafer due to overcapacity, there will be a price war.

In the module power sectors, due to the superposition of a series of new technology and single-crystal technology into the mainstream route.

components will come to power next year more than 300 watts, the next generation components and superimposed double-sided single-axis tracking component of next year, the cost of photovoltaic power will have fallen sharply, so although I expect next year will be the upstream photovoltaic industry
fierce price war occurs.

However, this price war for the entire industry is a great thing, long term, will usher in the great cycle of PV grid parity, the arrival of this cycle than anyone had imagined faster.

2, auxiliary prices

diamond wire, solar glass, EVA film, string inverter current margin is very high, generally higher than 30%.

In the manufacturing industry, such high margin is unreasonable.

They have great room for price cuts, if their prices come down, it will further promote grid parity PV industry.

3, component prices dropped significantly

next year due to lower China’s photovoltaic industry subsidies, American 201 double reverse, and Japan FIT subsidy reduction will be short-term uncertainty.

Since the disturbance of this uncertainty, the price of photovoltaic products next year there will be a significant decline.

inefficient products out of the market quickly, assembly mainstream power will be increased from 265 in 2016 to 2018 watts fast 310 watts, subsequently further diluted BOS costs.

appears mature

ultra-efficient components and double-sided double glass technology market will inevitably set off axis tracking system (because of the extra cost and ultra-efficient two-sided technology will be amortized effective tracking photovoltaic bracket) and, if not years
PV industry have industry links which will obtain excess margin, then it certainly is selling tracking photovoltaic bracket.

IV Summary

For the big trends in 2018, I judged as follows:

1, the China subsidy reduction, the United States
201 pairs Instead, short-term disturbances Japan fit subsidies continue to decline, the price of photovoltaic products next year there will be a significant decline and inefficient production capacity out of the market quickly.

According to estimates, next year the system cost of a centralized ground station will come less than five dollars, so the labor cost is very low in India, the manufacturing cost of PV module prices excluding tax area, 1W system even
less than 4 million.

2, in most parts of the world, PV grid parity usher in better lighting conditions of some areas, there may even become a local PV, the cheapest form of energy applications, PV in 2018
It will usher in the second half of the cycle grid parity.

3, due after the second half of 2018, PV can achieve grid parity in most parts of the world, no longer suffer disturbance subsidies in 2018 will be the last time the entire PV industry rite, PV
the industry structure will stabilize, there will be long-term stable development momentum.

After the very difficult second half of 2018 industry-wide large-scale loss of horrors, and the rest of the playoffs after the 2018 solar giant will grow into a true giant of one hundred billion level.

Fifth, the interpretation

Other issues in this article Q: If a single crystal production capacity to more than 50GW, is likely to be the Americans strangle hold.

In order to hinder the progress of the development of Chinese Americans, do a lot of good.

For example, in order to limit China’s space development, let Chinese people in contact with the International Space Station; for example in order to prevent Chinese supercomputer development, limiting the Obama administration to limit exports to China of high-performance computing card.
Prior to include GT furnace, it is to restrict exports.

monocrystalline before small, a few GW is pretty innocuous, but after more than 50 GW, hard to say.
China’s IC industry to develop, there must be a great reliance on high-purity quartz, Americans in China IC card industry when, incidentally photovoltaic quartz sand will also be affected, this is the biggest single crystal route uncertainty.

A: upstream raw material supply risk does exist.
And now increasingly high proportion of single crystal, the upstream suppliers of raw materials price hike phenomenon has emerged.
Some of the upstream raw material prices have been more than 100%.

domestic manufacturers have countermeasures, Lungi shares is one excellent example.

Lungi shares began many years ago in efforts to develop their own supplier system.
Support local suppliers of raw materials for domestic suppliers who can not provide, Lungi stock options and upstream suppliers signed a contract agreement to ensure the supply of raw materials, supply of raw material prices locked.

Indeed, some of the current upstream raw materials, we are not self-sufficient, but with the single crystal silicon technology into the mainstream route, China’s growing market demand, I believe the near future independent upstream supplier will
the introduction of competitive strength of the product and thus completely get rid of these concerns.

Q: Look, no matter what the process, glass and back surface of the cell border, are indispensable, it is not whether or something perovskite battery technology, rendering it cost per watt
to a dollar, if the component 2 yuan, the development of other technologies is not no big does it mean?

A: If the crystalline silicon module price dropped to two dollars, is not no need to develop other technologies of the route?
I do not like that.

too brittle crystalline silicon cells, fixed shape, the natural characteristics restrict its application scenario.

So no matter how cheap crystalline silicon photovoltaic cell, and space necessary for the development of battery technologies other routes are present.

for example on the wall, roof, bicycle body.
These irregular shape, thin film batteries can only be applied.

Further future crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells may go HIJ technical route.

This technique line, which allows the photovoltaic cell surface covered with a thin film, thereby further improve the power generation efficiency.

this perspective, the crystalline silicon thin film technology and technical route route is complementary relationship, not the relationship between life and death.

So even the most expensive components of crystalline silicon, the development of other cell types, the development of other technologies routes are very necessary.

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