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Lead: in-depth analysis logic of various varieties of Black!
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blue three women, graduated from Wuhan University of Science and Technology of coal Chemical Engineering, Beijing coking plant in Tangshan Jiahua coal Chemical Co., Ltd. engaged in coke
production and technical work, blending technology research, market research, procurement of raw coal, coke sales, etc., in the coking industry for more than 20 years of experience, in November 2015 Tam Ren Hongkai a senior researcher specializing in investment black coking coal coke futures, accurately predicted
2016 bifocal market, in November 2016, director of research at any black swimming Mu assets.
➤ Poker Finance: Many views are optimistic before bifocal that follow-up is expected strong material weak
pattern, this, how do you see?
Chi Lan coffee and three women: I still continue to be optimistic bifocal.
First of all, now all sectors of the stock is still very tight, inventory levels are not high, while spot prices in the upward trend.
Secondly, under the Port in the port ring true, the Australian coking coal to the amount of sulfur in Hong Kong is also less, has led to the current domestic product of low sulfur coking coal resource constraints.
but at this stage we see the emergence of disk bifocal correction, mainly because of financial aspects of the disk has changed.
So, it was still about a rhythm to grasp the problem, that is to say, even promising a commodity, but also a good grasp of the rhythm.
main logic stage, or in terms of limited production subject of speculation, bad profitable timber material.
But if in the case of timber continue to be optimistic, and falling raw material and how to go?
In other words, after the limited production subject of speculation in the past, the market will turn to speculation funds may replenishment of the stock market, it could eventually become useful they are just stagger up time of both raw materials, a sequence of problems.
There are arguments that, at this stage bifocal inventory than in previous years is not low, how replenishment market speculation?
But we have to know that this year’s profit is very good steel, so steel mills have done the maximum desirable inventory is relatively high.
Such as steel mills highest inventory level in previous years, the summer also in about 7-8 days, but this year it has been maintained at a level more than 10 days.
Simple to understand is down, Steel good profit, sufficient funds at the time did not want to expand their production capacity, raw material supply problem because the end is limited and, therefore, increase the intensity of the procurement of raw materials.
Furthermore, accumulation of raw steel in fact be said to be a way to cash in profits, he would not want to because of the shortage of raw materials and the impact of cash profits arise.
➤ Poker Finance: broad based domestic coking coal spot prices again this week, bifocal disk has always been weak, can you interpret for us the reasons behind this push is
Raw materials and end telling what story?
Chi Lan coffee and three women: In fact, the main impetus behind this reason is because of changes in the financial side, the disk is a limited production of raw materials bearish expectations.
But me personally, I think this problem of limited production, neither bullish nor bearish, it is actually a neutral event.
I had on the poker Finance, readers also answered a similar question, limited production problems not only for steel mills, coke plant will be limited production, that is, limited production will result in both supply and demand will weaken, therefore, to be bifocal
say, not directly to judge whether it is bullish or bearish.
“2 + 26” we are very concerned about environmental policy, said that limiting the production of steel by 50%, 30% coking limited production, but it is difficult to quantify, specifically how to perform really need to go to observe
However, at this stage the main environmental theme of speculation is not it, a little weak at this stage of raw materials, or with Benxi Iron and win treasure, attached to several problems related to the blast furnace.
If only several blast furnace accident, impact on the market may not be large.
But the key is, under the tight balance between supply and demand pattern has been the case, blast furnace accident raised concerns about the market because profits continued to remain high this year, steel mills, steel mills have been so strengthen the production, the maintenance of normal furnace or delayed, either improvise
this makes a lot of blast furnace steel production flow, or is sick job.
The accident is likely to pay attention to the relevant departments, post-blast caused extensive overhaul will result, operating rates decline.
This creates a relatively large impact on the demand for raw materials.
➤ Poker Finance: You can say the current Black were divided, then, do you think the follow-up market, the black variety which also seek to chance?
chi coffee blue three women: I think the whole black line, no cliff-style decline in demand, the case can remain stable, or to every side
low to do more thinking to treat.
If a row to Black strength ranking is the case, the fourth quarter, the hot coil is certainly the strongest, and coke, and coke thread, iron ore and finally, in this order.
At present it can be said to enter the “Golden September and Silver October,” season, we are also concerned about whether the issue price support.
Historically, the “Golden September and Silver October” does not have the needs of any major problems, but the prices are not necessarily big gains, “Golden September and Silver October” itself is not as good as “gold and three silver four”, often wait until October
when the spot price is also likely to wave down appear.
So, for the amount of demand for the “Golden September and Silver October,” it can be something to look forward, but the price, it’s best not to expect too much.
So, follow the market can also be a breakthrough, compared to the thread is concerned, but is larger hot rolled opportunity, the thread may maintain the trend of larger shocks.
bifocal aspects in the supply, it is actually maintaining a tight balance between the state, which also can be seen from bi-focal spot prices have been rising some clues.
Therefore, if there is a follow-up any sign of trouble, skyrocketing prices may also be relatively large.
Therefore, the bifocal, or do not recommend empty.
➤ Poker Finance: For Black, the follow-up we have what issues need attention?
Chi Lan coffee and three women: it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up of steel export situation.
July export volume terms sheet has been rising, foreign prices is greater, we can see that the will of steel exports is significantly increasing.
The second is to pay attention to the case of steel inventory accumulation.
Third, because the world economy is in recovery, China is a big country exports of coke, coke and therefore need to focus on changes in changes in export prices and export volumes, if the coke export volume growth soon, no doubt
domestic coke resources will lead to more tension.
➤ Poker Finance: the fact is this unknown direction of the stock market, in terms of number of participants are confused, do not know how it should operate, what is your response to this experience to share with us
chi coffee blue three women: in market volatility in, above all, to adhere to the direction of their own judgment, if it is judged that the market outlook is still upward trend, so, even if
in the time of the approach is relatively high point, we must adhere to hold a single, market volatility can not be confused or shaken.
If the judgment is accurate, the upward trend is really the case, even if at this stage the market shocks quilt, follow-up also have the opportunity to get out of trouble.
And then if views to change, eventually made a counter-market, it will only be the more sets deeper.
I have mentioned several times dips do more thinking, then the “low” how to grasp?
In fact, it can not be said to be “low.”
Take, for example, now coking coal, pre-emergence of the premium now, but that premium two-day pullback again to fight no more, at this time if we can callback to between 1350-1380, the situation is even a slight premium water level appears
, it can be determined to buy, that is, we often say “do more dips” in the “lows.”